With the UK plateauing at ~40,000 cases new COVID-19 cases per day, and cases growing exponentially in…
Germany, Austria, Netherlands, Greece, and many other European countries COVID-19 is still causing pain and grief. This new surge represents to the fourth major COVID-19 wave in Europe and is corresponding with the upcoming Northern winter season. Most countries in Europe are following analogous transmission patterns with the glaring exception being Sweden. From the beginning, Sweden dealt with COVID-19 in a differently to most other countries – some say in weird way but looking at the data, despite their no-lockdown approach, they have not faired less well than other countries; perhaps they have done even better.
The data needs a careful analysis, but a cursory glance it looks they have had two significant waves and unfortunately 15,000 deaths. In terms of size and population Sweden are comparable – in Greece there have been over 800k COVID-19 recorded and over 16,000 deaths; in Sweden there have been over 1 million cases and just over 15,000 deaths; two very different strategies and essentially the same outcome. Currently, Sweden has the situation under good control recording less than 1000 new cases and a handful of deaths each, Greece not so… recording ~6,000 cases per day and 50-60 deaths. In Sweden approximately, 67% of the population is fully vaccinated and in Greece the number is ~60%. So, very different responses and very similar outcomes and analogous vaccination rates.
The leading example of a successful response and vaccination strategy is Portugal; currently ~86.4% of the population is fully vaccinated; above the theoretical “magical” number for herd immunity for the delta SARS-CoV-2 variant (~85 assuming R0 5-6). Portugal is look at what “normality” might look like; currently recording around 1,000 new COVID-19 cases per day and 5-6 deaths per day; this level has been sustained over many months – starting ~end of March 2021. We’ll see how they go over the full winter but there are encouraging signs.
One important lesson from Portugal is that the vaccines can’t do this alone; public health measures including widespread and rapid testing, quarantine and isolation as appropriate, and mandatory mask wearing where social distancing can’t be maintained are still required.
Without being too pessimistic, it looks like COVID-19 will be here forever… Hopefully, with vaccinations, and emerging antivirals and therapeutics we’ll be able to live it just like any other common cold – as the cool kids would say – “a common cold on steroids”!
Until next time …