COVID-19 variants are confusing for most people… for good reason. Pretty much everyone knows…
the delta variant first identified in India. Compared to the original strain (previous iterations), the delta variant is much more infectious – higher transmissibility and perhaps associated with higher hospitalization rates. At around the same time a delta plus variant was emerging in Nepal – however, given the similarity to the delta variant, delta and delta plus were amalgamated. Now there is a “real” delta plus variant emerging (known as AY.4.2 – it needs a Greek letter I feel). This new variant is spreading around Europe and has been identified in the USA and Australia. At this stage it is a variant of concern – and it appears that it does not escape current vaccines.
Following the trajectory of the delta variant – it has had an interesting mode of spread … once it enters a new region it spreads like wildfire with a peak at ~2 months, then it rapidly dissipates over the next couple of months. In many countries it has resulted in the worst phase of the pandemic to date. This happened in numerous regions and Japan is the most striking example. In Japan’s early COVID-19 waves cases peaked at a bit above 7,000 new cases per day; delta which started to pick up at the end of July-early August resulted in a peak of just under 26,000 on August 20, 2021. By the first week of September cases dropped to ~10,000 per day, and by the start of October dropped to under 1,000 new cases per day (yesterday 265 new cases were reported)!. An analogous thing happened in numerous regions as mentioned above, including in India.
The dissipation of delta is difficult to explain particularly in India where ~25% of the population is fully vaccinated; of course, strict public health measures helped and the decline of the virus has been well-maintained. In Japan, the relatively high vaccination rate (>70% fully vaccinated), has definitely helped. Remarkably, >7 billion doses of vaccine have been administered around the world – assuming a world population of 8 billion, theoretically, ~40% of the population should be fully vaccinated; and a quick Google search confirms that number (39.4% of the population fully vaccinated); amazing speed & $$$ (Pfizer is reporting that it is expecting record COVID-19 vaccine sales next year – doesn’t really need to be announces J).
Despite these vaccination rates, cases are starting to creep up in around Europe, with Russia recording record death rates. In China people have been told to prepare for potential winter lockdowns; hopefully, these not signs for 2022! In Australia, as we head to summer, vaccination rates are very high, especially in the major cities (Sydney – almost 90% and Melbourne will be at 90% by the end of the month; ACT at 95% double vaccinated). Therefore, we are in the reopening phase – NSW (Sydney) and Victoria (kind of) are expediting in freedoms, with “full” freedom aimed at the end of November.
I other Australian news, there have been reports of “some researcher” refusing to get vaccinated with the “approved” vaccines because he got a dose of his own vaccine; this is really a non-story – the vaccine in question has been widely used and approved in Iran as a valid COVID vaccine … so whatever. In unrelated stories – our Prime Minister has been accused by the French President of lying re: the nuclear submarine deal with the US and UK; that’s like accusing a magician of doing magic tricks or a singer singing a song,… or etc… (not sure about the politics, for sure there were double- and triple-plays and also… teaming up the USA when it comes to military defence is not the worst thing). In totally different news, apparently, 10,000 feral horses (brumbies) are due to be culled as they destroying the Alpine wetlands.
In the meantime, rapid home tests are big thing in terms keeping a track on infections and getting an early indication … however, there is a scarcity of tests; this goes for the US and they were sold out immediately in Australia.
Finally, the now “super-famous cultural icon” Dr Fauci got himself another grilling yesterday mainly by Sen Rand Paul; the funding situation is way too complicated – needs it’s own full story (stories).
Until next time …