With daily COVID-19 cases in Melbourne hovering at around 200 daily, despite over a month of strict lockdowns …
and curfews, the Victorian has extended lockdown until at least September 23; and assuming 70% of the population have received at least their first vaccine dose. Of course, the lockdown is appropriate to protect people but there are a few errors in the messaging. Firstly, we know the first dose of the major vaccine available currently in Australia– Pfizer and AstraZeneca – do not offer sufficient protection especially against the delta variant. Secondly, the number of 70% is now obsolete given the difference in R0 values for the original Wuhan strain (~2) and the predominating delta variant (~7); the “magic” number now for herd immunity is now more like 85%.
The delta variant is causing severe issues globally; in the US over 150,000 new COVID-19 cases are now being reported daily and deaths are at ~1,500 every day. Along, with the resurgence of COVID-19 due to the delta variant hurricane Ida has caused major havoc in Louisiana with major effects in New Orleans, major catastrophic flooding in the New York area, and wildfires in California threating the Lake Tahoe area and creeping towards Nevada. On top of that, there was the exodus from Afghanistan – I don’t understand the politics of that situation at all – from a naïve perspective it looks like the US and allies removed the Taliban from power – muffed about for 20 years wasting money and resources – and then gave up, and the Taliban is back in power; must be more complicated than that? Anyways the point is – disease, hurricanes, floods, wildfires – feels like a bit like the final Book of Revelation.
Just to balance out the negativity, there are some good signs of a return to normality – Lady Gaga is returning to The Strip (Las Vegas) with her Piano and Jazz show; ABBA is making a comeback – incidentally they were formed in 1972 the year I was born – I’m 50 so, they must be like 1000 years old now J; great band and can’t wait for their new songs. And, of course the big one – Cristiano Ronaldo is coming back home; he was originally scouted by the Great Sir Alex Ferguson and signed at Manchester United as an 18-year (who mainly dribbled around himself!), and now returning as a 36 year-old; Cristiano is a bit like Tom Brady – a winner, so I’m expecting United to do great things in the next couple of years.
On the note of the UK, the latest is that the Queen’s death itinerary was leaked; not many surprises in the proposed sequence of events … in terms of COVID, the UK is now in what can be considered its fourth wave (really a continuation of the third), despite a relatively high vaccination rate (~65% of the population fully vaccinated).
This further highlights the extreme contagiousness of the delta variant and the need to fully vaccinate closer to 85% of the population to be on the safer side.
Until next time …