Although it turns out that the delta variant (R0~6-7) is not quite as transmissible as the highly contagious smallpox virus …
(R0~9-10), it causing major issues around the world. Many regions are currently in the worst shape that they been throughout the entire pandemic. Surges of cases are being reported around the world. Some examples in include Japan (in the fourth wave and approaching 20,000 cases per day; previous highs were ~5,000 cases per day), Thailand (similar number to Japan; previous highs were ~3,000 cases per day), and Malaysia, also with similar numbers. In Iran approximately 50,000 new cases are being reported per day (third wave; previous waves peaked at ~25,000 [wave 2], and ~13,000 [wave 1]).
In the US, new cases are approaching 150,000 per day with surges in most states. Given the number of breakthrough cases in fully vaccinated people, a third dose of the mRNA-based vaccines (8 months after the second dose), has been approved. It is has been noticed that protection (antibody levels) decline months after vaccination and a data strongly indicates that a booster shot will be helpful. Contentious vaccine mandates are also being implemented for many indoor areas in New York and California (we’ll discuss the ethics and implications of these mandates separately).
The delta variant is problematic in Australia, and unlike the US (~50% fully vaccinated), our vaccination rate (~22% fully vaccinated), is quite low in comparison. Despite two months of restrictions and lockdowns, Sydney (NSW), is the most affected region with new cases growing reaching 681 new reported cases today; epidemiological modelling is suggesting that this will grow to over 2,000 new cases per day in the coming weeks. In Melbourne, we have the virus under better control with until today cases hovering at around 20 per day (today we reported 57 new cases). Our Government is rightly is very cautious and has extended strict lockdown (5km radius and curfew between 9 pm – 5 am), for an additional 14 days until 11:59 pm September 2.
These are grim times but the encouraging fact is that vaccines are working! Fully vaccinated people are definitely protected from severe COVID-19 and hospitalization.
So… it is critical that as soon you can – get vaccinated!
Until next time …